Not Another Deshaun Watson Article

Dipping Some Watson Chicken Tendies Into Luxurious Trade Idea Sauce

The Jets sported the second-worst offense in 2020, and when looking at the starters, Robert Saleh will surely find more questions than answers. 

For example, one of the team’s best young players is Mekhi Becton. Shanahan offenses favor lighter linemen for a zone blocking system. So despite Becton’s athleticism and speed at 365 pounds, a serious conditioning program might be in store for Becton.

Details matter, but the surest way for a coach like Saleh to make quick progress would be through big changes and upgrading the quarterback is one of the biggest. In an offseason where an unprecedented number of quality quarterbacks might be available through trade or free agency, it would be foolish for the Jets to not probe the market and best of the bunch is Deshaun Watson.

Get Your Dunkers Ready

I won’t run down all the hot taekery, but it is worth noting that Watson has some preferences about where he winds up — likely Miami. I’m sure Watson would love to play for Robert Saleh and the New York Jets, but working with Brian Flores on the sun-drenched shores of an up and coming Silicon Beach with all the nightlife and none of the state property tax is appealing. Apologies to my Jerz brethren, but the Milburn Deli’s Sloppy Joe simply doesn’t have the same allure.

Texans are extremely unlikely to trade Watson. If they actually DO a trade, there’s a zero percent chance they would not double, triple, and quadruple check with the Jets interest because of their ability to put together one of the most appealing packages.

The Jets will have every chance to make this trade if they really want.

So what’s left to discuss? Quite a bit! These topics seem bigger than nuggets, and inspired by the chicken tender madness happening over at WSB let’s start dunking.

Sweet and Sour (Max Value, Max Risk?)

As I wrote about before. I believe that no player in the NFL, even at the height of their powers, is worth paying more than 3.5 random first round draft picks to acquire. The key point of that sentence is the phrase “to acquire.” Other teams might value them more, or move mountains beyond that value to acquire a player, but I believe they do so to their own peril. Let other teams wreck their future draft capital - the only way to store value in the NFL. Teams like the Rams.

The #2 overall pick is worth roughly two random firsts. With Seattle getting bounced early (hooray variance!) their pick is worth more than expected and so closes the gap on the third random pick. So from there, the rest would be window dressing.

By the way, if you missed Richard Sherman’s trade offer, be sure to check out what he said about this potential trade on the Collinsworth Podcast. I need that dude as a GM in the NFL in 10 years.

Patrick Mahomes is surely worth more than 3.5 random firsts at this point, but with contract implications, injury risk, and ability to field sufficient supporting talent … it is good to remember there’s no sure things in the NFL.

And that’s the point of the 3.5 random first rounder rule; it is more about limiting myself and what I’d be willing to spend to acquire a player than it is about where others value him.

Buttermilk Ranch (Rules Are Meant to Be Broken)

Now throw everything I just said about value and rules out the window!!! 

Rules like those are helpful guidance to check oneself, but at least know what rules you break as you do it. Of course I’d pay more than 3.5 random first for Mahomes! The same goes for Watson. But if I am going to go above and beyond, I want to do my best to limit the collateral damage of such a move.

Similarly, it seems like former Jets GM and notorious wheeler-dealer Mike Tannenbaum understands the limits and yet would blow through any stop signs on a mission to acquire Deshaun Watson. 

Here’s Tannenbaum from this past week on The Jake Asman Show:

“I would get Nick Caserio on the phone. I would absolutely do whatever it took. Once you have Deshaun Watson, you create this aura of association. [Look at who] decided on Tampa Bay, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown — it’s amazing what a great quarterback does.

“It changes your franchise, and you have Robert Saleh. You go get Deshaun Watson, and the New York Jets will be thought about completely differently for the next 10 years. And if you have to throw in Quinnen Williams, I don’t care. Because I can go find a Quinnen Williams, but Deshaun Watson is too talented. He’s a great person. He’s a great leader. He’s young. He’s under contract for five years. Whatever it takes, I get Deshaun Watson.”

Tannenbaum of course participated in three trades which turned into Jets quarterbacks: Brett Favre, Mark Sanchez, and Tim Tebow. While I like Tannenbaum’s resolve on Watson as he sits in the armchair, the prices he himself paid in acquiring quarterbacks from then stand at odds with his opinion now on what the Jets should do to acquire Watson at this moment. 

Maybe Tannenbaum’s recklessness to go all-in on a player of Watson’s caliber and age comes from the internalized pain never securing that one stabilizing QB during his tenures. For that reason I sympathize with why Tannenbaum would do it here for a proven player entering his prime.

Tannenbaum’s theory on Watson attracting free agents can easily be tested by the number of players who have been openly campaigning for Watson. Even his own teammates don’t blame him.

Of course free agents aren’t always “free” but cap space is easier to come by than draft picks or franchise-level quarterbacks. But even cap space will be hard. Due to the deceleration of the salary cap, veterans will likely get squeezed in the next two offseason cycles according to Scott Pioli who wrote that “a larger number of veteran players could be forced to take minimum contracts.” A team like Jets could find some bargains available in free agency … with a solid QB to attract them.

Lining up for a 2021 quarterback open house

Hot Mustard (WTF! Why, Rams, Whyyyyy?!?)

So what is Deshaun Watson really worth on the 2021 market? Who the hell knows, but it will be a lot. 

Ever bought a house? As one of the most emotional buying experiences in your life, comparables are an important way to stay between the emotional guardrails on how much you pay. Right now the residential real estate market is legit bonkers because of low interest rates and low inventory and so historical comps aren’t that helpful. The NFL is seeing a similar situation take hold, draft picks are being discounted against players who are known commodities, which is then amplified by teams panicking over concerns of a deflationary salary cap in the short term. Until we see a few more deals, it is going to be hard to triangulate on what Watson’s true value in this market is. 

We just saw this with the Los Angeles Rams throwing Goff and a raft of picks at the Lions. The Rams have been mortgaging the future of their team and watching talent leak out of the organization for years yet somehow Les Snead still runs the team. In fact, the Rams will not have made or hold their own first round draft picks between the 2017-2023 league years. That’s insane. Even if they fired Snead, who would take the job without a first rounder until four drafts from now?

Jared Goff. Not pictured: anchor of a contract

I contend that the Lions-Rams trade was more about Goff than it was about Stafford. I think we might see something similar regarding Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles. So keep an eye on what the Eagles “get” for Wentz, not because he’s actually comparable to Watson or even Stafford, but because it will demonstrate how panicked and batshit crazy the market is.

Szechuan Sauce (Shanahan Offense + Deshaun)

There’s a lot of speculation around what new OC Mike Lafleur will bring with him. The obvious idea is that he will lift a fairly pure version of the Shanahan Offense. So what is the Shanahan Offense? Here’s some details of the base characteristics and tenets:

• Lighter and faster offensive linemen

• Running backs with trackstar speed scores and decisive one-cut burst

• Mobile platform quarterbacks

• Zone-blocking line scheme

• Simple runs utilizing inside or outside zone plays

• Play-action pass and rollouts on long-developing route concepts

So the quarterback might not be asked to do as much as often in a Shanahan Offense as opposed to a traditional West Coast Offense. But it is important to recognize that when the quarterback is asked to do something, he’s actually asked to do more, per Grant Cohn’s article in the Press-Democrat on the topic:

The goal of the West Coast Offense is to consistently pick up at least four yards per play and reach 'third and manageable' — between third and four and third and six. 

[…] 

The goal of the Shanahan Offense is to create big plays and avoid third down entirely. Meaning the quarterback throws beyond the first-down marker as much as possible. When it's second and eight, the Shanahan Offense aims to reach first and 10, not third and four.

It kind of makes sense. On second and eight would you rather need to chain two shorter successful plays together to get a first down, or take two shots at a slightly longer successful play?

QBs want their Shanahan Szechuan Sauce

The answer lies in a quarterback’s deep ball accuracy. Jimmy Garropolo was one of the most accurate deep ball passers in 2019, and guess who was number six in 2019 and number five in the league in 2020?

Combinations like a Shanahan Offense and Deshaun Watson might cause the same levels of public clamor that we see whenever Szechuan Sauce comes back to McDonald’s.

74 BBQ Sauce (A Timeless Classic)

Okay okay okay okay  … so IF we are going to sell the farm to bring in a player like Deshaun Watson, when is his likely prime be and for how long will he be productive?

There’s lots of work on the age curve of NFL positions — mostly done by dynasty football folk — and much of it sits behind paywalls, but here’s one that is open and gets to the point:

Quarterbacks are almost at their peak at 27, but are at their highest level of performance at 28. You can also see that quarterbacks develop the most within their first four seasons, and are near the version of best player that they will ever be in their age 25 season. The peak period of quarterback performance seems to be from 26 to 30—five seasons.

After a quarterback slowly declines from their peak, they take their first significant hit in performance at 31 and their second noteworthy drop in performance at 34.

Translation: you are buying a sure thing with Deshaun Watson.

In case you want to check more studies like the one above, see here and here. 

Ah, but does Deshaun Watson’s excellence as a rusher (read: takes more hits) factor into the speed of that decay? Two QBs tackled that subject a few years ago:

… quarterbacks who have generated 2,000 career rushing yards typically see peak production in their age-25 and age-26 seasons. The decline of these players starts around age 30, which consistently aligns with research done on player’s athleticism as they age. 

[...] 

Unless these quarterbacks can offset their rushing production with gains in efficiency, they may not be able to lead the position for long. [Russell] Wilson has shown growth as a passer every season in the league, which mitigates some of his concerns. In contrast, coaches have tried to fit [Cam] Newton into different play styles over the last few years, which makes him slightly more unpredictable.

Watson is on pace to break 2,000 career rushing yards in 2021. So assuming the worst-case scenario that Watson continues to rush at the same rate, the Jets could rely on him for great production with some injury risk over the next 5-7 years and then would have to come up with another plan. Best-case scenario, he refines his play as he ages like Russell Wilson which then extends his career and lowers his injury risk.

Taking on the worst-case first … are the Jets in a situation over the next 5-7 years where they can realistically compete while also forgoing the value of multiple first and second round picks? Sounds pretty sweet and with a little heat.

Mix & Match (When Choices Abound)

The best hands to play in poker are the ones where you have multiple “outs.” Meaning that depending on how the cards fall you have more than one way to win the hand. As the Jets coaching staff and front office approach the offseason acquisition period, they need to determine what are their outs versus what are “dead” draws. Here’s the range of draws:

1) Stick with Sam Darnold as the QB in 2021.

2) Get in the 2021 quarterback mosh pit via trade or free agency

3) Draft any one prospective QB NOT named Trevor Lawrence at #2.

Kyle Shanahan is on record saying that his offense relies on a “pure thrower” and the way the system sets up highly values a deep passer.

So which option provides the best chance at that out? In 2020, Sam Darnold ranked #33 in deep ball accuracy but was working with a terrible system and a work-in-progress offensive line. Does the Jets coaching staff think Darnold is redeemable? If not, that would lead them to identifying a potential trade or free agency target who would excel as a mobile platform deep passing QB.

The top of the NFL Draft is the surest way to secure a franchise quality quarterback, but there’s no guarantees even if you get to draft a top five player. Look at Goff, Wentz, Trubisky .. the list goes on. We get that Zach Wilson or Justin Fields are compelling players … but we also get that they’ve proven nothing in the NFL yet. 

So if you do move on from Sam, do you pay a premium for the known producer in Deshaun Watson, or trust your scouting to bring in a quarterback who can excel in the Shanahan system and build around them with those other premium picks?

We live in a world where dunking tenders in soda leads to fame

Dunking: A Three Dimensional Problem

How sensitive or insensitive are the Jets on paying whatever it takes to get Deshaun Watson? How sensitive or insensitive are the Texans around compensation are the Texans on giving him away? Also, with a no-trade clause, how interested is Deshaun in leaving Houston for New York versus a preferred destination like Miami?

Dunking is a three dimensional challenge, relying on alignment across three planes of existence at a precise point. Something like this:

I didn’t even picture the dimensions of what other teams would be willing to pay, but unlike Matthew McConaughey I am not equipped to move past the third dimension.

The point here is that to hit the mark, many things must align; this is why I would be very surprised if Watson wound up on the Jets. To be sure, Watson is the sort of player for which it would be worth to pay the price.

I think he’s primed for fitting in with a team like the Jets and their new system, but I don’t believe the Jets will be willing to pay whatever the Texans want. And while it’s cold compensation, at least the Jets will be part of the conversation should the Texans move Deshaun Watson anywhere.

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This time, I’ve asked Tyson Rauch, legendary Jet fan, Twitter mensch, and co-host of the Let’s Talk Jets! Podcast to comment on my dipping sauce flavored descent into madness. If you don’t already follow Tyson on Twitter be sure to do so!

The debate over the possibility of trading for Deshaun Watson has revealed a few things that fans tend to look past. First off, while first round picks are quite valuable, what separates teams in the NFL is getting value after the first round, which is where the Jets have epically failed. The mantra “build through the draft” is not about round one, it is about getting contributors through each round which helps offset player departures over the years. So, there is a world, where you can trade away three first round picks ( or even four over three years) and still be just fine in terms of the draft, assuming you effectively use resources well on Day 2 and Day 3.

In addition, the acquisition of a player like Watson, one of the top six quarterbacks in the NFL, makes a significant difference in free agency, where the Jets have ample cap space. For far too long Gang Green would pay a “Jets tax” to land free agents as the stench of losing and incompetence is hard to overcome. Watson is a culture and perception changer when it comes to recruiting and marketing, and that pays huge dividends in free agency. 

Lastly, the value of significant cap space along with the lack of players that must be resigned in the near future seems to be getting discounted. It appears that many fans have become jaded after Mike Maccagnan spent like a drunken sailor with minimal return. $80 million plus in cap space can go a long way, if handled properly, where you can improve depth and land some game breaking talent. In terms of cap space the Jets are in a solid spot, even after taking on Watson’s contract.

So in summary, yes, the compensation for Watson is hefty, but it can be handled if the Jets as an organization have a well thought out blueprint to address holes through the draft and free agency. I understand some of the skepticism regarding trading for Deshaun, but he is a next level talent that can drastically change the direction for the Jets on and off the field.

Go follow Tyson on Twitter!

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