Hey there, it’s been a while. Reportedly, Adam Gase was told to go ahead to move down to Storage B after the Patriots game. Finally. Anyway, let’s jump in.
Imagine you are a fan of a sports team. For the better part of three months that team stops at nothing to show you the depths of their coaching incompetence. Now imagine, one of the greatest prospects of all time (not exaggeration) could be available to help lead your team out of the darkness. If only your team can commit to this one dreadful season! You’d be willing to delay your gratification, right?
Then what if that opportunity was ripped away through a series of unfortunate events? What would you do? Where would you turn?
After 48 hours of denial and anger, maybe you’d enter the bargaining stage of your grief? Maybe you’d flip on some ESPN College Football Terrible Bowl Games Brought To You By Capital One to kill the pain? Maybe you even caught this live version of The Book of Mormon?
No doubt, that’s an impressive game by Zach Wilson. But was it enough to abandon all logic and reason and photoshop the second coming of Punky QB into Gotham Green?
Not Saying No, Just Saying Not Yet
It is very obvious that Wilson has some drool-inducing natural ability. Watching him click his heels, set a base, and square those shoulders before shooting lasers 30 yards downfield can’t be ignored. Wilson had a great game on a national stage at the exact right moment during my grieving process of future Jet QB Trevor Lawrence. But does that mean I am going to wildly grasp onto him being the QB2 and the future of the Jets?
Sorry, but my grief isn’t so great that I am ready to fall prey to the Chazz Reinhold of the football subdivision because the dream of Trevor Lawrence died in a tragic hang-gliding accident.
I understand that the Wilson Wagon is leaving without me. But right now I am unwilling to sign off on a prospect being asked to jump up two levels of competition, but who was unable to beat a ranked opponent this season.
The simple answer to “is Zach Wilson worthy of the second overall pick and therefore the Jets’ next franchise QB?” As of right now for me is “no.” Or maybe better, “not yet.”
Why not?
At this exact moment, right before the Sugar Bowl, it is easy to diminish Justin Fields accomplishments. Why? Because his Indiana (ranked team) game wasn’t great and then he muddled through a win against Northwestern (again, ranked) in which 23 of his teammates were — mostly due to COVID-19 protocols — unavailable to play?
Meanwhile it’s easy to love Wilson. Why? Because he whomped an unranked Central Florida team’s ass three days after Justin Fields bombed against Northwestern?
Recency bias is a real phenomenon. Humans tend to favor recent events over historical ones. With the exception of 2020, normally at this point in the Draft process there’s rarely consensus on who the top QB is, let alone who the second, third, or fourth quarterbacks are. People who are paid to do this all day everyday are still figuring it out. Witness this interaction with an old friend of TJB, Matt Miller.
Yet two weeks ago he wasn’t even worthy of QB3 consideration by Miller’s standards. Sorry Matt, but that looks like some serious recency bias. Why bother ranking players at all if you haven’t even popped in all top six players’ tape?
People will say rankings can change fast. That’s false. Rankings change because we have more information or are placing a bias on certain information we have. But to have a quarter million Twitter followers and subjectively be raising and lowering players who have had the good fortune of getting their tape popped in most recently is dangerous and messing with prospects’ livelihoods.
I will concede that Zach Wilson has done enough just via the data to validate that he belongs alongside the Big Six of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones.
Maybe I will wind up concluding that Zach Wilson is the best choice for the Jets at the second pick, but this bandwagon is getting overcrowded and therefore not that likely to move quickly. Worst case scenario, I have four months to catch up to a parade float. Seems like an easy tradeoff.
In Which We Look At Some Per Game Averages
Newsflash: this year was messed up, on many many levels!
We’ve got prospects playing a handful of games, opting out and in, unprecedented injuries, and dealing with league protocols around COVID-19. When reviewing collegiate play it is always a good idea to bust out per game averages, but in 2020 it matters more than ever.
Until we have the full numbers, here’s how Zach Wilson stacks up to the other Big Six as of this December 14 article on Rotoviz by Travis May.
Playing against lesser competition, I’m sure he put up video game numbers, right?
But on a per game basis there’s no single category Wilson leads in … and he’s generally third in every category.
OK so maybe he didn’t get to put up insane numbers because of the talent around him, but I’m sure he graded out way above everyone else, right?
So yes he’s actually first here, but the grading differential between these five players is effectively inconsequential and Mac Jones, an SEC player who few analysts seem to love as a top prospect, is right on his heels. PFF explains how they do their grading in this walkthrough video. The margin between Zach Wilson and Grayson McCall is about the same as the difference in PFF’s 2019 NFL grades of Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. So basically all of them are really good.
Cool. Cool cool cool.
If Not Now, Then When?
At a minimum, I want answers to the following:
Final game results for other QB prospects (e.g. Fields, Trask, Jones)
Who are the new coaches for the Jets? Do they value downfield passing more than a mobile attack?
We also need to tackle some of the messier questions:
Can Sam Darnold be salvaged? (Maybe, but at what cost?)
Is drafting the 2021 QB2 alongside Sam the best long term value for the Jets? (Probably)
Does the best player available at any non-QB position do more to unlock value for the franchise? (Probably not)
Does trading back provide the highest value? (Depends on how far back you go and whether you can still secure one of the top three QBs)
OH MY GOD IS THAT WOODY JOHNSON’S ENTRANCE MUSIC?! (Let Joe Cook!)
Prematurely anointing Zach Wilson as the team’s savior via the second overall pick is unwise. The Jets need to take a first principles approach to solving the utter ruin of this organization.
Stop Copying Off Someone Else’s Paper
I have always maintained that Adam Gase got the big chair with the Dolphins and Jets because he had an unwarranted reputation as Peyton Manning’s offensive coordinator in Denver. Executives in both Miami and New York didn’t take the time understand the difference between correlation and causation and in both cases it set them back for years. They used analogies (e.g. it worked for Peyton!, he did good things with Jay Cutler!, we’ll still get to pick our favorite defensive coordinator if we chose this guy!) to convince themselves of why he was the right for the job instead of looking for the objective truth (e.g. is what happened in Denver more about Peyton than Adam?, do I trust Matt Rhule’s approach?).
Mike Lombardi often talks about the concept of good coaches versus play stealers. Gase has been figuratively copying off others’ pages for years, and now the Peter principle has finally outed him as the fraud he is.
Credit: Lee S. Weissman
First principles would have suited Chris Johnson better, but what should we expect from a man who has no known work experience before the age of 41 listed in his Wikipedia page? And as best I can tell, his first job was minority owner of the Jets. Chris Johnson was too blinded by a phone call from some Nationwide spokesperson, or his desire to hire the perpetrator of Bountygate as the defensive mastermind, to see the truth about Gase after his time in Miami.
Reasoning by first principles are useful when (A) doing something the first time, (B) dealing with complexity, and (C) trying to regain control in a situation with multiple levels of failures. Any of that sound relevant in fixing the New York Jets?
In contrast, reasoning by analogy is using traditions and widely held assumptions to help you navigate situations.
The real-life Tony Stark can explain.
“Boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there. As opposed to reasoning by analogy. We get through life by reasoning by analogy, which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. And you have to do that. Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn’t be able to get through the day. But when you want to do something new, you have to apply the [first principles] approach.”
There’s a reason that Elon Musk was able to send astronauts to the International Space Station under 20 years while Adam Gase is out here hitting the smelling salts on national TV and amassing a brutal 32-48 record after embarking on a twenty year journey as a coach.
Hey Elon! I want to do something new! I want the New York Jets to become a sustainably relevant organization! I want to build a team dreaded by other fanbases!
If there’s ever a chance to use first principles, it is with this mess of an organization. We’re not even sending to people to Mars, or disrupting the $3 trillion dollar automotive market. We’re just trying to get a bunch of football players into the playoffs on average more than they are out of it.
Pssst! First Principles Are Really Hard! Maybe That’s Why Trust Fund Jags Don’t Use Them!
First principles require a lot of work. But basically all of Western society has hinged on this foundational work of Socrates. First principles require us to slow down and ask dumb questions and boil things down to fundamental truths. Once we have them as building blocks, first principles can lead us to new solutions, but only if we apply tight reasoning to those fundamental truths.
Using first principles often leads to non-traditional decisions, like SpaceX’s idea to lower the costs of sending payloads to orbit by building reusable rockets. Or like when the Browns traded cap space for draft picks in the Brock Osweiler trade. Of course, dyed-in-the-wool traditionalists like Bill Polian were incensed.
“Cleveland is telling people it is not about the player, it is about the pick. ‘We got the pick. Aren’t we smart? Look at this, we got the pick. We had cap space, so we got the pick.’ They paid $17 million for probably a low, second-round pick.”
If we reason by analogy we’re supposed to feel bad about the ego of a man who, to his credit, locked up one of the best money grab contracts of all time getting traded?
Applying the money to re-sign Joel Bitonio might have been a traditional way for the Browns to apply that money, but Bitonio is still with the team so that seemed to work out. The Texans were abysmal that year and the pick wound as the 35th overall. The Browns then used their 33rd pick to shore up their offensive line and then skinny-stacked that OL bet by using the Texans pick to take one of highest graded prospects at his position, RB Nick Chubb.
By anyone actually using first principle thinking, that trade has been lauded as one of the most inventive ever. Reactions like Polian’s are why Freezing Cold Takes exists.
Here Be Dragons
First principles can be dangerous though, because they are the DGAFs of all DGAFs. Just witness some of Kevin Cole’s excellent analytical work at PFF and the weird places it can lead.
Holding onto hope and a three-year-old draft evaluation isn’t the way for the Jets to transcend a history of mediocrity. The numbers show that sticking with Darnold is most likely to lower the team’s ceiling going forward, as moving from a 25th-percentile passer to a 50th- or 75th-percentile one brings benefits that overwhelm what draft capital can provide at other positions.
Does it feel a tad early to add another quarterback to the room after drafting one at #3 just three years ago? Yes, but that doesn’t make it wrong.
Reasoning by analogy would say “well now you must move Sam” or “the locker room is going to be awkward” or “what if Sam actually works out and then you have this other highly picked guy too?” or “now the coach has to manage this headache in front of the tabloids.”
Leave that shit to the high priests of reasoning by analogy, the Jets beat reporters.
Suggesting that Darnold is already fully baked isn’t going that far out on a limb. But what if we used the same logic to a rookie like Tua Tagavailoa who has had less time to prove himself yet demonstrated Darnold-like struggles? Again using first principles, Kevin Cole suggests that the Dolphins should draft whichever QB falls to them at #3, emphasis mine.
Implementing this dual-quarterback approach won’t be easy, but that shouldn't be enough to stop the Dolphins from maximizing their chance to fill the most critical role in football. Teams don’t often have the opportunity to draft legitimate top QB prospects, and currently having a question mark at the position from the last draft isn't a good reason to pass on doing so.
How ballsy would that be? Just imagine Bill Polian howling when he read that.
Wrap it Up, Bassett
If you made it this far Dear Reader, thank you.
Here’s my commitment to you.
I commit to this Substack between now and the 2021 NFL Draft in the same way a chef commits to a pop-up restaurant. I commit to not committing yet to anything after that. I commit to my best efforts to get Mach out weekly. I commit to stumbling through a first principles approach to coming up with a blueprint to make this a better team. I commit to striving for intellectual honesty. I commit to asking guest critics to respond to my articles at the end of as many future articles as possible. I commit to keeping it free. Although, I do commit to highlighting non-profits and small businesses that I care about. I commit to pestering you to support them.
Here’s what I ask you to consider.
I ask you to be patient with me as I fumble through this project. I ask you to consider interacting with me via comments, email, and Twitter. I ask you to similarly consider applying a first principles problem solving approach to the New York Jets. I ask you to consider sharing your learnings with me, as I’ll need them.
Lastly, I ask you to consider subscribing to Mach👇 and sharing Mach 👇👇 with your fellow friends and family.
First principles is an interesting angle for the Jets situation.
Gase's play calling has always reminded me of a novice chess or poker player who's definitely read some theory, but is myopically focused on what he's trying to do and oblivious to his opponent.
In poker they refer to levels of thought:
Level 1 - what do I have?
Level 2 - what does they have?
Level 3- what do they think I have?
Level 4 - what do they think I think they have?
Level 5 - what do they think I think they think I have?
Some amateurs function all the way up to Level 5, but you'll never find a pro operating below level 4.
The most generous interpretation puts Gase at level 3, which is why if he doesn't have a QB operating at Level 4 or 5, he gets his shit pushed-in by D-Coordinators.
The coaches defining today's NFL offenses, like Reid, McVay, & Shanny, operate firmly at Level 4/5, so they can keep their QB's decision making at 1-3.
Anyway, I feel like this dovetails with first principles. If you don't fundamentally understand how the game works and why, you'll struggle answering the questions of the first two levels. And if you can't competently answer those questions, then level 3-5 will just make your head spin trying to think about them.
I think the broader point about trust fund jags, first principles & analogy is bang on. If your success is handed to you, your objective is to maintain that success, not reinvent the wheel. That's how we get all of society's ills from Korn Ferry to the current day GOP.
thanks for the read. I just wonder how a team that thought Adam Gase was the best choice is suddenly going to make good decisions. Are we saying Woody Johnson is a genius and the team made poor decisions once he left? We know they'll never sell the team, so we are stuck hoping Joe Douglas is lucky and really good at his job. And stuck hoping that if he is good at his job there will be no meddling from ownership. I mean 95% (just a spitball) thought Adam Gase was the worst possible decision right when he was hired. How pray tell does an organization make such a bad decision just because Peyton Manning recommended him. The same Peyton Manning who spurned us to play an extra year of Tennessee College Football. Such a second class organizational move. And I still will not forgive this org for not building their own stadium. I went to 4 games since the New Meadowlands. I know, just know I would have been to so many more, if we had our own home I could take a train to. But I guess we never know, and why we keep rooting and hoping for a change to this franchise for the better.
First principles is an interesting angle for the Jets situation.
Gase's play calling has always reminded me of a novice chess or poker player who's definitely read some theory, but is myopically focused on what he's trying to do and oblivious to his opponent.
In poker they refer to levels of thought:
Level 1 - what do I have?
Level 2 - what does they have?
Level 3- what do they think I have?
Level 4 - what do they think I think they have?
Level 5 - what do they think I think they think I have?
Some amateurs function all the way up to Level 5, but you'll never find a pro operating below level 4.
The most generous interpretation puts Gase at level 3, which is why if he doesn't have a QB operating at Level 4 or 5, he gets his shit pushed-in by D-Coordinators.
The coaches defining today's NFL offenses, like Reid, McVay, & Shanny, operate firmly at Level 4/5, so they can keep their QB's decision making at 1-3.
Anyway, I feel like this dovetails with first principles. If you don't fundamentally understand how the game works and why, you'll struggle answering the questions of the first two levels. And if you can't competently answer those questions, then level 3-5 will just make your head spin trying to think about them.
I think the broader point about trust fund jags, first principles & analogy is bang on. If your success is handed to you, your objective is to maintain that success, not reinvent the wheel. That's how we get all of society's ills from Korn Ferry to the current day GOP.
thanks for the read. I just wonder how a team that thought Adam Gase was the best choice is suddenly going to make good decisions. Are we saying Woody Johnson is a genius and the team made poor decisions once he left? We know they'll never sell the team, so we are stuck hoping Joe Douglas is lucky and really good at his job. And stuck hoping that if he is good at his job there will be no meddling from ownership. I mean 95% (just a spitball) thought Adam Gase was the worst possible decision right when he was hired. How pray tell does an organization make such a bad decision just because Peyton Manning recommended him. The same Peyton Manning who spurned us to play an extra year of Tennessee College Football. Such a second class organizational move. And I still will not forgive this org for not building their own stadium. I went to 4 games since the New Meadowlands. I know, just know I would have been to so many more, if we had our own home I could take a train to. But I guess we never know, and why we keep rooting and hoping for a change to this franchise for the better.