First principles is an interesting angle for the Jets situation.
Gase's play calling has always reminded me of a novice chess or poker player who's definitely read some theory, but is myopically focused on what he's trying to do and oblivious to his opponent.
In poker they refer to levels of thought:
Level 1 - what do I have?
Level 2 - what does they have?
Level 3- what do they think I have?
Level 4 - what do they think I think they have?
Level 5 - what do they think I think they think I have?
Some amateurs function all the way up to Level 5, but you'll never find a pro operating below level 4.
The most generous interpretation puts Gase at level 3, which is why if he doesn't have a QB operating at Level 4 or 5, he gets his shit pushed-in by D-Coordinators.
The coaches defining today's NFL offenses, like Reid, McVay, & Shanny, operate firmly at Level 4/5, so they can keep their QB's decision making at 1-3.
Anyway, I feel like this dovetails with first principles. If you don't fundamentally understand how the game works and why, you'll struggle answering the questions of the first two levels. And if you can't competently answer those questions, then level 3-5 will just make your head spin trying to think about them.
I think the broader point about trust fund jags, first principles & analogy is bang on. If your success is handed to you, your objective is to maintain that success, not reinvent the wheel. That's how we get all of society's ills from Korn Ferry to the current day GOP.
thanks for the read. I just wonder how a team that thought Adam Gase was the best choice is suddenly going to make good decisions. Are we saying Woody Johnson is a genius and the team made poor decisions once he left? We know they'll never sell the team, so we are stuck hoping Joe Douglas is lucky and really good at his job. And stuck hoping that if he is good at his job there will be no meddling from ownership. I mean 95% (just a spitball) thought Adam Gase was the worst possible decision right when he was hired. How pray tell does an organization make such a bad decision just because Peyton Manning recommended him. The same Peyton Manning who spurned us to play an extra year of Tennessee College Football. Such a second class organizational move. And I still will not forgive this org for not building their own stadium. I went to 4 games since the New Meadowlands. I know, just know I would have been to so many more, if we had our own home I could take a train to. But I guess we never know, and why we keep rooting and hoping for a change to this franchise for the better.
this was a really good article, as a long time NYJ fan I worried when they drafted Darnold that the organization would not properly support a young talent. The day they drafted Sam they should have fired Macc & Bowles, ( Gase is so flawed a decision that only Chris Johnson could not have predicted the outcome ) instead we wasted 3 years and will never know if Darnold has the ability to lead a team to the playoffs
I get the impression, from this article, that even if the Jets believe Darnold can be salvaged that it is still prudent to use the high draft capital on another QB. Until we get that position right we are treading water, at best. We have been in the proverbial QB desert for so long that I am jumping at every mirage we see.
Nice job, Brian! This Mach brings back the old TJB days for me. Sorry if that comes across as an Analogy, but, as in most of life, everything is relative. I liked that you held off on your commitment to Zach Wilson on this day. That was prudent. Lets exhaust all possibilities and scenarios first... after all we’ve got 4 months to get there! Best of luck on your newest endeavor. (Geez, I cant believe your son is 11 now!)
Great article can't wait to read more. I will say we can all say we saw this coming on the gase front so I won't waste too many key strokes on him. As for darnold, all I will say is that his time has come... He's proven to be at best a back up. His decision making is horrid, and his mechanics / vision have actually worsened. What can be fixed still won't make him good. Statistically he's Blake bortles after 3 seasons. No coach or gm with any chance at success would not tie thier future to Blake bortles, & therefore shouldnt do so with darnold. I can appreciate waiting on the Wilson train but a qb is a must, people need to let go of this build around blake errr Sam stuff. The kid has his inflection point & unfortunately gase was there to push his potential in the wrong direction. Draft a qb now & use all these picks over this & the next draft to build around him
Great article Brian! With the massive caveat that I haven’t seen Darnold play this season i would strongly consider keeping him for one year and investing the pick elsewhere on the team to see him with a competent coaching staff in place. Admittedly arguing by analog, but there are many players who have escaped the “Gase effect” and have improved tremendously including Tannehill.
First principles is an interesting angle for the Jets situation.
Gase's play calling has always reminded me of a novice chess or poker player who's definitely read some theory, but is myopically focused on what he's trying to do and oblivious to his opponent.
In poker they refer to levels of thought:
Level 1 - what do I have?
Level 2 - what does they have?
Level 3- what do they think I have?
Level 4 - what do they think I think they have?
Level 5 - what do they think I think they think I have?
Some amateurs function all the way up to Level 5, but you'll never find a pro operating below level 4.
The most generous interpretation puts Gase at level 3, which is why if he doesn't have a QB operating at Level 4 or 5, he gets his shit pushed-in by D-Coordinators.
The coaches defining today's NFL offenses, like Reid, McVay, & Shanny, operate firmly at Level 4/5, so they can keep their QB's decision making at 1-3.
Anyway, I feel like this dovetails with first principles. If you don't fundamentally understand how the game works and why, you'll struggle answering the questions of the first two levels. And if you can't competently answer those questions, then level 3-5 will just make your head spin trying to think about them.
I think the broader point about trust fund jags, first principles & analogy is bang on. If your success is handed to you, your objective is to maintain that success, not reinvent the wheel. That's how we get all of society's ills from Korn Ferry to the current day GOP.
thanks for the read. I just wonder how a team that thought Adam Gase was the best choice is suddenly going to make good decisions. Are we saying Woody Johnson is a genius and the team made poor decisions once he left? We know they'll never sell the team, so we are stuck hoping Joe Douglas is lucky and really good at his job. And stuck hoping that if he is good at his job there will be no meddling from ownership. I mean 95% (just a spitball) thought Adam Gase was the worst possible decision right when he was hired. How pray tell does an organization make such a bad decision just because Peyton Manning recommended him. The same Peyton Manning who spurned us to play an extra year of Tennessee College Football. Such a second class organizational move. And I still will not forgive this org for not building their own stadium. I went to 4 games since the New Meadowlands. I know, just know I would have been to so many more, if we had our own home I could take a train to. But I guess we never know, and why we keep rooting and hoping for a change to this franchise for the better.
I really enjoyed this article.
this was a really good article, as a long time NYJ fan I worried when they drafted Darnold that the organization would not properly support a young talent. The day they drafted Sam they should have fired Macc & Bowles, ( Gase is so flawed a decision that only Chris Johnson could not have predicted the outcome ) instead we wasted 3 years and will never know if Darnold has the ability to lead a team to the playoffs
I get the impression, from this article, that even if the Jets believe Darnold can be salvaged that it is still prudent to use the high draft capital on another QB. Until we get that position right we are treading water, at best. We have been in the proverbial QB desert for so long that I am jumping at every mirage we see.
Nice job, Brian! This Mach brings back the old TJB days for me. Sorry if that comes across as an Analogy, but, as in most of life, everything is relative. I liked that you held off on your commitment to Zach Wilson on this day. That was prudent. Lets exhaust all possibilities and scenarios first... after all we’ve got 4 months to get there! Best of luck on your newest endeavor. (Geez, I cant believe your son is 11 now!)
This is tremendous and like the breakdown step by step. ~~ Tyson
Well thought out Brian. Been a follower since the old days, Pre-Rex. Keep up the great work!
Best-Tim Twitchell
Great article can't wait to read more. I will say we can all say we saw this coming on the gase front so I won't waste too many key strokes on him. As for darnold, all I will say is that his time has come... He's proven to be at best a back up. His decision making is horrid, and his mechanics / vision have actually worsened. What can be fixed still won't make him good. Statistically he's Blake bortles after 3 seasons. No coach or gm with any chance at success would not tie thier future to Blake bortles, & therefore shouldnt do so with darnold. I can appreciate waiting on the Wilson train but a qb is a must, people need to let go of this build around blake errr Sam stuff. The kid has his inflection point & unfortunately gase was there to push his potential in the wrong direction. Draft a qb now & use all these picks over this & the next draft to build around him
Great article Brian! With the massive caveat that I haven’t seen Darnold play this season i would strongly consider keeping him for one year and investing the pick elsewhere on the team to see him with a competent coaching staff in place. Admittedly arguing by analog, but there are many players who have escaped the “Gase effect” and have improved tremendously including Tannehill.