The Algebra of NFL Wins
Solving for the Head Coach in a Multivariate Equation
Hey! Be sure to jump to the end where you can read our very first Second Opinion, this week from longtime friend and JetsFix.com founder, Bent, on this topic.
Well, here we are again after only two years. The New York Jets have surprised no one and fired Adam Gase — the coach they never should have hired in the first place.
After putting together the longest active postseason drought, a barren roster, and head coaches pile up at the bottom of the cliff … maybe the Jets ownership should look elsewhere at assigning the blame?
Raylan Givens explains it best.
Adam Gase was never going to work, but maybe it’s not just the Jets coaches that are in Raylan’s parlance ‘the asshole in the morning’? Maybe this series of ‘assholes all day’ has more to do with the assholes historically at the center of the decisions?
Nothing Gold Can Stay
You don’t need me to compile the data that NFL head coaching hires don’t last long. Coaching tenures like that of Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, and Pete Carroll are the exception and not the rule. Just seven head coaches are still the named coach of their team from 2016. Seven!!
What is alarming is that NFL teams are not only getting faster at striking out on their head coaches, but the teams that strike out are more prone to do it again the next time. This, according to Ty Schalter’s research on FiveThirtyEight from last January:
If we break down the successes and failures over time, a pattern emerges: Teams are hiring and firing more quickly, and the results are worse.
Over the past decade, NFL teams have made 68 hires, down slightly from the 70 made the decade before. Yet 21 of the 40 failed hires (52.5 percent) came in the 2010s, and only 18 of the 47 (38.3 percent) successes. Worse, it seems that failure begets failure: Teams that fired 14 of the coaching busts immediately hired another one, while only seven coaching failures were followed by successes.
The irony of this is that the NFL, which always lags in trends, historically has the longest tenure of head coaches in the major professional sports in the United States.
So when you look at the tenure of Jets head coaches, the Johnson Family’s patience has been … just average. While I am sure the Johnsons feel like a bunch of long-suffering saints, the truth is they’re not really that different than anyone else.
But hey, at least we can see the evidence that the Johnson Family understands and is striving for longevity with their coaches. While Gase turned out to be a quick trigger, there were actually reports floated during the season that Chris Johnson slow-played the firing of Adam Gase. The rationale was that Johnson didn’t want a premature firing of his head coach to have a chilling effect on potential 2021 candidates.
How to NOT Solve This Equation
Remember my long diatribe last week about first principles and why they matter? When it comes to hiring coaches, working from analogies is an easy trap for many owners to fall into.
How often does the “he’s so hot right now” coordinator get hired only to fail miserably? Ever seen a retread get a second shot only to be worse than in his first stop? What about the genius college coach who comes to the NFL and flies too close to the sun?
Hot coordinator example: You just lived it. Adam Gase showed that when not holding Peyton Manning’s clipboard, he’s an extremely poor coach. His time in Chicago as OC gave us hints before his time in Miami confirmed it. But alas, Ruprecht blew right through those stoplights.
Retread: Remember the Lovie Smith era in Tampa Bay? Neither does anyone else. Lovie Smith’s success in Chicago must be linked to the work of his GM Jerry Angelo as well as an extremely strong entourage of coordinators.
College Genius: Can someone check INTERPOL and find out if Chip Kelly is still alive? After bringing many trends to the NFL, Kelly’s controlling and heavy-handed college style didn’t have staying power in the NFL. Also everyone got sick of him playing Mark Morrison’s Return of the Mack on loop everyday all year. In addition to some dubious innovations which were quickly absorbed and countered, Kelly dug his own grave when he made a power play for personnel control. Spoiler alert, Howie Roseman is still in Philly.
Solving for Coach X
Based on recent reports I would say that it is fair that Chris Johnson is learning.
But, “successfully” hiring a head coach is still a multivariable equation. There’s no way to entirely decouple the success of any coach without accounting for all the context around that same coach. The sooner a team owner understands that, the more likely they are to build a sustainable organization.
While that does make searches frustrating — there is hope. Just like any multivariable equation you can still isolate values like “head coach” on one side of the equation, while accounting for the expression on the other side.
So as the Jets embark on yet another head coaching hire, here’s my humble attempt at tutoring Jets ownership on how to proceed.
Let Joe Douglas Lead and Please Shut the Hell Up
Most owners probably don’t have the humility to know that they are the biggest problem in the hiring process. Ownership routinely adds the most complexity to solving for a new coach through their insistence on having “a say.”
Asking an absurdly wealthy person, who might have never played football, what makes a successful head coach sure sounds like the a great example of the Dunning-Kruger effect in the wild.
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people's inability to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their level of competence.
So in my software product building world, that’s like me — the sales guy, knowing nothing about the deep complexity of the work or the tools and methods — telling my Director of Engineering who has spent the last 15 years honing his craft that “this isn’t that hard. Building a portable healthcare record shouldn’t take more than a week.”
While it makes sense that the owner of the team wants to have an opinion, the smart ones will know that theirs isn’t all that valuable.
Since I work with startups, I get to talk to lots of CEOs. In my experience the CEOs who build successful companies from little more than an idea often talk about themselves as being “the dumbest person in the room.” While there might be some degree of false humility, they have learned the hard way that going against the advice of their specialists (finance, legal, sales, etc.) can cost them dearly.
The same is true in hiring a head coach to build up the football operations of a team. Does Christopher Johnson need to approve of all the director level hires in ticket sales, merchandising, and facilities? Unlikely. While it seems crazy, the same holds true in hiring a coach. It feels crazy because of the public aspect, but the truth is that it isn’t really that different.
“It doesn't make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do; we hire smart people so they can tell us what to do.”
— Some dude named Steve Jobs
It comes down to trust. Do you trust the people you hired or not? The sooner New York Jets ownership stops getting in the way of the football people, the more likely they are to be successful in turning the franchise around.
“I have always been figuring out how to hire people who could be my tutor, people who would teach me. If you ever get lucky enough to be hiring people, make sure you’re hiring people that not only you can teach, but make sure you’re hiring people who are also going to teach you things.”
— A loser named Jeff Bezos
We get it, the Johnsons are rich and smart and in control of a billion dollar enterprise. Congrats on being born on third. But how about what Jobs and Bezos did to make a more indelible impact on American business and culture in the last 30 years? Oh and let’s add in that they did so to the tune of 1000s of times more valuable than the New York Jets. Maybe their philosophies on hiring are worthy of emulation?
Don’t Start With the Anti-Gase
Look at this list of coaches and their characteristics. What patterns do you see?
Coach Name: Public persona // Internal persona // Tactical results // O-D-ST
Herm Edwards: Extremely emotive // Player’s coach // Poor Tactician // Defense
Eric Mangini: Withholding // Disciplinarian // Strong Tactician // Multidisciplinary
Rex Ryan: Extremely emotive // Player’s coach // Mediocre Tactician // Defense
Todd Bowles: Highly reserved // Disciplinarian // Poor Tactician // Defense
Adam Gase: Antagonistic // Antagonistic // Poor Tactician // Offense
In software programming we call this behavior an anti-pattern. The Jets hiring history demonstrates overcompensating on personality based on whoever was the last head coach. While the Jets might have thought each successive hiring was an appropriate or effective response to the problem at hand, it is clear that this behavior has caused more harm than good. What’s more, while the team seems to have focused on personality and temperament, they have sacrificed attention to a coach’s ability to properly prepare for opponents on gameday ... textbook anti-pattern behavior.
Hiring a new head coach should not be a referendum on the failures of the last regime. It should be an affirmation of the most important aspects of coaching. Was the last coach emotive? Immaterial. Were they strict? Also immaterial. How about which side of the ball they came from? Again, immaterial. How good are they at gameday tactics? Hmm … now there’s an idea!
Rather than react to the last guy, the Jets should focus on finding someone who commands respect but is trusted and understands how to put together a good coaching staff and delegate responsibility. The Jets should find someone who is humble enough to submit the scheme to the collective skills of his players. If the Jets care about winning, then they need to find someone who is intellectually curious enough to never stop learning. Find someone who understands how to take all the pieces apart and recombine them back together; so that when Sunday comes, making the proper adjustments is clockwork.
From the Bottom Up
Last summer as teams prepare for an unprecedented training camp in the middle of a pandemic, NFL.com’s Jim Trotter wrote one of my favorite articles with one of the best premises about how to determine what makes a good head coach.
Rather than ask owners -- whose hiring practices aren't exactly flawless, otherwise there would not be an average of nearly seven head coaches fired every year since 2000 -- I sought out a player at each position group for his thoughts.
Trotter’s approach illustrates the paradox between who knows better (players) and those who typically make get to make the decision (ownership) yet are often wrong. Read through words of players like Demario Davis, Travis Kelce, Richard Sherman, and many others you get a sense of what truly matters to the people who take orders and go to war for these coaches. How much does being a guru come up? How concerned are players about whether a coach is strict or lax? According to their answers, what matters more are characteristics like trust, communication, knowledge, competitive spirit, and leadership.
The point is not to include players in the decision-making, but rather to point out that these are the clues on which aspects to focus on or ignore.
Bountiful Harvest
So all that brings us to this; a group of candidates that seems promising. Some years the pickings are slim, but this cycle doesn’t have that feel. So I am giving you a permission slip to be excited about a good crop of candidates. Since I don’t know these people all I can do is share my impressions from my research of the ones publicly mentioned as part of the process so far.
LAR DC Brandon Staley [LAC] — Staley spent time with the Bears after Joe Douglas’s time. Staley worked at John Carroll University, a prep program for many current coaches in the pro game. 2020 was Staley’s first as a NFL coordinator. Based on the Rams talent it is hard to disassociate the results from the talent. Staley seems sharp, and curious. While he might have strong opinions about the game, he doesn’t seem rigid. Unless he checks all the boxes on traits for Douglas, he appears an outside shot.
TEN OC Arthur Smith [LAC, JAX, DET, ATL, HOU] — Smith has dedicated himself to the Titans organization over the last decade working up from a lowly assistant. As OC for the last two years, Smith has impressed. It is hard to decouple his work from that of GM Jon Robinson, though. Robinson is one of the best in the game and prioritized the OL early in his tenure. Now, his OL grades among the best in the league. Along the way, the Titans used analytics to hit on some extremely talented skill position players. Smith seems like a typical football coach and could be fine, but there will be a lot for the Jets to determine about him in order to solve for his “equation.” One thing is clear, he doesn’t lack internal drive. How do I know that? His father is Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx. Smith does not need to be a coach, so that should be explored during his interview.
IND DC Matt Eberflus [HOU, LAC] — Eberflus is a longtime NFL coach who worked his way up from Toledo, to Mizzou, to the Browns before following Rob Ryan to the Cowboys. For the last two years, Eberflus has been with the Colts in a semi-arranged marriage alongside Frank Reich after Josh McDaniels backed out. The Colts aren’t impressively talented, but he’s brought incremental improvement. Personality-wise, Eberflus reminds me of a Midwestern Pete Carroll; quietly confident and During his days at Mizzou, he was known for his stellar recruiting work, even convincing former Jets WR Brad Smith to play for the Tigers. As Carroll talks about competition, Eberflus’s mantra seems to be “hustle.” I get the sense that while Eberflus has never been a head coach, he could easily transition into that sort of role.
Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald [???] — I am totally here for the Jets pursuing someone like Fitzgerald, but there’s lots of circumstantial reasons why I think it won’t happen and so I’m going to save myself some keystrokes, you can read many of them from Albert Breer on SI from a month ago. I certainly think that not getting the first overall pick is a major blow to their chances at someone like Fitzgerald.
If you’ve never seen a press conference with Coach Fitz here’s a sample. This can work over the long-term in a city like Chicago. On a long enough timeline, think this plays in the press room with the Florham Park Fun Police?
BUF OC Brian Daboll [LAC] — If two of your first bosses were Nick Saban and Bill Belichick, do you think you’d get up that learning curve more quickly than others? That’s Daboll’s story before following Eric Mangini to the Jets as his Quarterbacks coach. Since then, he’s bounced around the league working on the offensive side of the ball with much of his time spent as a coordinator. While he’s never been a head coach, the timing seems right for him to get a shot.
KCC OC Eric Bieniemy [ATL, DET, LAC, JAX] — Bieniemy has as an impressive resume as you will find: NCAA National Champion, Heisman Trophy finalist, decade long NFL playing career, coach for two decades after that. He has seen multiple aspects of the NFL as prospect, player, and now coach. He paid his dues as a coach before he paid them again under Andy Reid and was instrumental in Reid’s winning of his first Super Bowl. Sure, it is hard to decouple his work from the talent on the field and the offensive mind of his head coach, but we are at the point now where until he gets a head coaching offer, we won’t know much more than we already do. If there are concerns about the level of talent he had, then we only have to look to our trust of Joe Douglas. From watching interviews, he seems to be upbeat and a natural teacher. If there are questions about his ability to scheme and deploy tactics, then that comes down to Douglas’s read.
Honorable mentions.
BAL DC Don Martindale — He has not been named a candidate yet. Could be a good “old salt” type for the Jets, but not sure if he is an executive / delegator type.
Iowa State HC Matt Campbell — Removed himself from consideration two years ago, would he be interested now? I am if he is.
NYG DC Patrick Graham — Removed himself from consideration
Quick Hits
Zach Wilson Take Lock — Rich Hribar, one of the most brilliant minds in fantasy football, is known for coining the phrase “take lock.” Last week, we cautioned about getting out too early on Zach Wilson because we didn’t have all the data. Welp, more data has come in around Justin Fields, with more yet to drop against Alabama and then the Combine process later this year. I advise you to keep an eye out for those who are locked into their opinions about players as the Draft process marches onward.
Commit to Not Committing — Yesterday Joe Douglas talked to the press and smartly made no commitments positive or negative around what the future is for Sam Darnold. There’s no value in Douglas committing to Sam or not at this point. Telegraphing his intent publicly on the record to other coaches and GMs would only lower the value those teams would be willing to pay for Darnold or the second pick.
Second Opinion: Bent from JetsFix.com
From Bassett: Did you know that in the darkest and dankest corners of the Internet, people believe I am the same person as Bent? We spent a lot of time together building TheJetsBlog, but trust me … that rumor is an extreme compliment to me but I don’t know how Bent feels about it. :D Bent is one of the most genuine and sincere people I know and I owe him so much, so there’s no other person I’d ask to give Mach’s first Second Opinion. While I’ve scaled back my writing, Bent continues to pen his prose on SNY, GGN, and his own site, JetsFix.com.
I basically echo everything here. It’s reassuring, if not essential, to know that a business can thrive even when the boss is the “dumbest guy in the room” and avoiding the kind of over-compensation that has led the Jets to overlook candidate flaws in the past is probably the best way to avoid repeating their mistakes.
This hire is all about trust and confidence. If a guy can be so unimpressive at his introductory presser that you’re already questioning how he managed to impress the team enough to earn the job over several other qualified candidates players, fans and media will lose - or in this case won’t regain - confidence in the organization. Sure, Peyton Manning vouched for Adam Gase - and Joe Douglas would later do the same (publicly, at least) - but that provides little comfort to a skeptical fanbase conditioned to wonder what everyone’s agenda is.
Mach is where Brian Bassett, former co-founder of TheJetsBlog and erstwhile digital product development salesperson, write about the intersections of statistics, logic, and technology with sports.
Herm Edwards, Mangini, Ryan - We had decent, fun to watch teams with all three of them. Yes, we fell short - Herm had a tendency to make mistakes late game, Mangini should have continued coaching if not for Brett Farve's injury and Ryan just could never get the offense going enough. Yet, those were GOOD years for the jets.
I have been a manager several times in my life, most notably as a officer in the Navy. In none of those positions did I have to directly manage more than ten people. It is a tough job to do well, and besides being a manager you always have more things that the job calls for. An NFL head coach has to over see a team of 56 people. Has a crew of other coaches. I think this is underestimated in the hiring process. I think the Jets need someone who can lead. He needs to know enough about the different parts team to be able to hire the right people. If those two things happen other aspects of being a successful team should start to fall into place.